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VC Intelligence Report

538 Election Forecast

Analytics — Nate Silver's realtime US Presidential Election Forecast [Politics, Tech]
Analyticsfreeest. 2016
→ Redirected
Verdict from HTTP liveness real
last probed Aug 26, 2026
Pulse 16.0 · 1/4
16.0
Pulse Index
1/4 families · real
0.0
30-day Δ
pulse momentum · real
17
HTTP probes
liveness history · real
7
Functional tags
observed attributes · real
Risk read derived from observed signals

The recorded URL now redirects offsite — often an acquisition, rebrand, or wind-down; the destination is recorded in the telemetry below. Pulse has been flat over the last 30 days. Observation is liveness-only: no tracked press, repository, or traffic rank — existence is confirmed, momentum is unobserved.

HTTP liveness

real
17 probes · Jun 16, 2026Aug 26, 2026aliveredirecteddeadunverified

Signal telemetry

4 families · 1 observed · observed only
Liveness probereal
alive in 0% of 17 probesavg response 2335 ms
Developer tractionchecked · none
No public repository linked — GitHub signals are not tracked for this product.
Press & sentimentchecked · none
No coverage found in the tracked press corpus. Absence of press is itself a signal at this stage.
Web footprintreal
resolved host
abcnews.com
edge
direct origin
server
nginx/1.28.3
Tranco rank
unranked
Domain age & certificate data not yet collected

Analyst read

generated from the observed metrics above · no external narrative

538 Election Forecast's listed URL redirected off its original domain (to https://abcnews.com/politics) when we last probed it on Aug 26, 2026 — we mark it redirected, not dead. It has fewer than two observed signal families, so no Pulse Index is composed — the evidence strip shows what is and isn’t present. Observed footprint: 7 functional tags. It has no curated competitive-alternative edges yet, so the comparable set below is functional tag-similarity — read it with the confidence flags.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity
CompanyBasisOverlapPulse30d ΔStatus
Just Bitcoin Trendsfinancetag-overlap86%8.00.0— unverified
London Feelsanalyticssimilar86%8.00.0— unverified
COVID-19 Dashboard : Cases, Deathshealthtag-overlap86%40.00.0● live
The Coronavirus Appentertainmenttag-overlap86%41.50.0● live
Worldometersanalyticssimilar75%49.50.0● live
COVID-19 Dataanalyticssimilar75%16.00.0→ redirected
Plural Vote - 2020 Senate forecastanalyticssimilar75%0.00.0■ inactive
SPACELAUN.CHentertainmenttag-overlap75%8.00.0— unverified

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Overlap is the shared functional-tag ratio (Jaccard) for tag-matched rows. Pulse is the observed-activity index real and 30d Δ its signed month change; a dash means insufficient observed history, never zero.

Structure

observed attributes
Business modelfree
Liveness tierunknown
Competitive alternativesnone linked
Open sourceNo
Public APINo
Free tierNo
Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

not in source

No disclosed funding in our sources. Funding data covers only ~1% of the corpus (462 rounds across 79K products), so absence here is unknown, not zero— we don't estimate a number we can't source.

RAW TELEMETRY last 14 probes
PROBEDHTTPORIGIN → RESOLVEDSERVERMSVERDICT
2026-08-26 10:12Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.34185redirected_offsite
2026-08-18 13:06Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.32705redirected_offsite
2026-08-11 00:03Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.31577redirected_offsite
2026-08-08 05:52Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.31700redirected_offsite
2026-08-05 18:15Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.32309redirected_offsite
2026-07-30 17:29Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.31527redirected_offsite
2026-07-18 15:24Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.33157redirected_offsite
2026-07-16 09:33Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.31398redirected_offsite
2026-07-09 10:55Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.32035redirected_offsite
2026-07-04 04:08Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.33410redirected_offsite
2026-06-23 13:32Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.02140redirected_offsite
2026-06-21 21:49Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.01860redirected_offsite
2026-06-20 19:56Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.02452redirected_offsite
2026-06-19 15:10Z200fivethirtyeight.com → abcnews.comnginx/1.28.02233redirected_offsite
Full redirect chains, response headers, and DNS records are not captured by the current probe.
Launch Sentinel tear sheet · 538 Election Forecast · as of 2026-08-28 · launchsentinel.com/reports/538-election-forecast · liveness, pulse and press figures are observed data with provenance shown per panel.