AYTR2021
Signal trajectory
realSignal 39.7 → 13.2 across 151 readings (-26.5). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.
Cross-sectional profile
percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled productsPercentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.
Mortality outlook
model estimateThis is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.
- LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
- Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
- Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
- Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
- Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model
n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.
Analyst read
generated from the metrics above · no external narrativeAYTR2021 sits in the 53th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #2,530 of 11,555 in Entertainment. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 34% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 1 linked rival, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is positive (WoW +37.1).
Comparable set
curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity| Company | Basis | Signal | P(dead) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timehopentertainment | curated | 22.9 | 3% |
| RandomComicsentertainment | similar | 15.7 | 65% |
| hiitrain.comhealth | tag-overlap | 32.9 | 3% |
| GIF Cupentertainment | similar | 15.7 | 95% |
| Shitpostdentertainment | similar | 22.9 | 67% |
| Crappy Taxidermyentertainment | similar | 15.7 | 64% |
| HEIC To JPGdesign | tag-overlap | 32.9 | 30% |
| Hidden Object Gamesentertainment | similar | 30.0 | 5% |
Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.
Structure
observed attributesFunding & team
not in sourceNo disclosed funding in our sources. Funding data covers only ~1% of the corpus (462 rounds across 79K products), so absence here is unknown, not zero— we don't estimate a number we can't source.