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VC Intelligence Report

Buffer

Marketing — Buffer is the easiest way to publish on social media [Tech]
Marketingsaasest. 2014
● Stable
Category standing real
39th pctl · Marketing
18.6
Signal score
0–100 composite · real
#2,712
Category rank
of 5,093 · real
46th
Universe percentile
vs 79,105 modeled · real
18%
Mortality P(dead)
model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 7.5 → 12.9 across 37 readings (+5.4). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products
Signal (universe) real
46
Signal (category) real
39
Profile maturity real
46
Tag breadth real
95
Network position sparse
100
Press footprint sparse
0

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate
18%
P(inactive)
Low risk
Higher risk than 27% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

  • LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
  • Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
  • Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
  • Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
  • Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

Buffer sits in the 46th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #2,712 of 5,093 in Marketing. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 18% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 29 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is roughly flat.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity
CompanyBasisSignalP(dead)
PromoRepublic 2.0marketingsimilar18.671%
CoSchedulemarketingsimilar18.62%
Social Media Calendarmarketingsimilar18.697%
Hopscotchmarketingsimilar32.94%
Rivuumarketingsimilar18.669%
Socialoomphmarketingsimilar11.496%
Amplifrmarketingsimilar25.71%
Heropostmarketingsimilar30.05%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes
Business modelsaas
Liveness tierunknown
Open sourceNo
Public APINo
Free tierNo
Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

1 disclosed funding round on record, 2 founders resolved. See the full cap table on the product profile →