CapCut
Signal trajectory
realSignal 14.6 → 21.5 across 167 readings (+6.9). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.
Cross-sectional profile
percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled productsPercentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.
Mortality outlook
model estimateThis is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.
- LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
- Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
- Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
- Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
- Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model
n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.
Analyst read
generated from the metrics above · no external narrativeCapCut sits in the 87th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #57 of 5,141 in Design. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 6% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 9 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is roughly flat.
Comparable set
curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity| Company | Basis | Signal | P(dead) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mojentertainment | tag-overlap | 32.9 | 9% |
| JibJab for Messengerentertainment | tag-overlap | 15.7 | 66% |
| YoTokentertainment | tag-overlap | 30.0 | 56% |
| Spottravel | tag-overlap | 32.9 | 30% |
| DualCam AIdesign | similar | 64.3 | 3% |
| Shotsentertainment | tag-overlap | 25.7 | 20% |
| Clips by Appleentertainment | tag-overlap | 18.6 | 42% |
| Toldentertainment | tag-overlap | 25.7 | 8% |
Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.
Structure
observed attributesFunding & team
real2 disclosed funding rounds on record. See the full cap table on the product profile →