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VC Intelligence Report

Echo Show

Hardware — Amazon Echo now has a screen — Echo Show is a new take of a smart speaker, it gives you everythi…
Hardwarehardwareest. 2018
● Stable
Category standing real
100th pctl · Hardware
50.9
Signal score
0–100 composite · real
#8
Category rank
of 5,243 · real
100th
Universe percentile
vs 79,105 modeled · real
12%
Mortality P(dead)
model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 11.1 → 18.5 across 38 readings (+7.4). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products
Signal (universe) real
100
Signal (category) real
100
Profile maturity real
63
Tag breadth real
64
Network position sparse
94
Press footprint sparse
0

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate
12%
P(inactive)
Low risk
Higher risk than 21% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

  • LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
  • Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
  • Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
  • Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
  • Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

Echo Show sits in the 100th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #8 of 5,243 in Hardware. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 12% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 1 linked rival, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is roughly flat.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity
CompanyBasisSignalP(dead)
Apple iPadhardwarecurated15.72%
Roku Streambarhardwaresimilar32.915%
The New iPod Touchhardwaresimilar30.015%
Google Chromecast 3hardwaresimilar32.915%
Rega RP78hardwaresimilar15.785%
Powerbeats2hardwaresimilar18.67%
Kucablehardwaresimilar15.774%
Helios Hybrid Solar Pack with voice enabled body camhardwaresimilar30.016%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes
Business modelhardware
Liveness tierfading
Open sourceNo
Public APINo
Free tierNo
Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

2 disclosed funding rounds on record. See the full cap table on the product profile →