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VC Intelligence Report

Facebook Local

Entertainment — Discover places to go and events happening near you — Facebook Local is an app to keep up with w…
Entertainmentsaasest. 2018
● Stable
Category standing real
78th pctl · Entertainment
25.7
Signal score
0–100 composite · real
#2,231
Category rank
of 11,555 · real
63th
Universe percentile
vs 79,105 modeled · real
1%
Mortality P(dead)
model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 11.1 → 14.6 across 25 readings (+3.6). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products
Signal (universe) real
63
Signal (category) real
78
Profile maturity real
63
Tag breadth real
48
Network position sparse
94
Press footprint sparse
0

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate
1%
P(inactive)
Low risk
Higher risk than 3% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

  • LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
  • Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
  • Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
  • Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
  • Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

Facebook Local sits in the 63th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #2,231 of 11,555 in Entertainment. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 1% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 1 linked rival, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is roughly flat.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity
CompanyBasisSignalP(dead)
Eventbritemarketingcurated15.71%
#FIREFIREentertainmentsimilar15.778%
TMapentertainmentsimilar30.057%
Instant View by Telegramentertainmentsimilar15.746%
CommuteBOStraveltag-overlap22.976%
RainViewer 2entertainmentsimilar30.012%
Compete - Minigame Showdownentertainmentsimilar30.049%
Treadmill Prohealthtag-overlap64.32%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes
Business modelsaas
Liveness tierfading
Open sourceNo
Public APINo
Free tierNo
Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

1 disclosed funding round on record, 6 founders resolved. See the full cap table on the product profile →