Firebase Predictions

Developer Tools — Define dynamic user groups based on predicted behavior — Firebase Predictions uses the power of …

Developer Toolssaasest. 2017

● Stable

Category standing real

54th pctl · Developer Tools

25.7

Signal score

0–100 composite · real

#2,996

Category rank

of 7,723 · real

63th

Universe percentile

vs 79,105 modeled · real

Mortality P(dead)

model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 11.1 → 23.2 across 39 readings (+12.1). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products

Signal (universe) real

Signal (category) real

Profile maturity real

Tag breadth real

Network position sparse

Press footprint sparse

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate

P(inactive)

Low risk

Higher risk than 15% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

Firebase Predictions sits in the 63th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #2,996 of 7,723 in Developer Tools. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 7% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It has no curated competitive-alternative edges yet, so the comparable set below is functional tag-similarity — read it with the confidence flags. Signal momentum is roughly flat.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity

Company	Basis	Signal	P(dead)
Overseerdev-tools	similar	25.7	7%
DataWeaveanalytics	tag-overlap	15.7	97%
Bibblioai-tools	tag-overlap	15.7	93%
Glitch for Platformsdev-tools	similar	22.9	28%
Amazon Mobile Analyticsanalytics	tag-overlap	18.6	13%
Fabric mission control by Twitterdev-tools	similar	22.9	77%
App42 API Gatewaydev-tools	similar	25.7	27%
Zeeve Subgraphs: Indexed Blockchain Datadev-tools	similar	30.0	11%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes

Business modelsaas

Liveness tierquiet

Open sourceNo

Public APINo

Free tierNo

Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

1 disclosed funding round on record. See the full cap table on the product profile →