open-design

Design — A local-first, open-source design platform that leverages multiple AI models including Claude, G…

Designopen-source

● Stable

Category standing real

99th pctl · Design

40.0

Signal score

0–100 composite · real

#18

Category rank

of 5,141 · real

99th

Universe percentile

vs 79,105 modeled · real

48%

Mortality P(dead)

model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 21.8 → 28.5 across 154 readings (+6.7). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products

Signal (universe) real

Signal (category) real

Profile maturity real

Tag breadth real

100

Network position sparse

Press footprint sparse

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate

48%

P(inactive)

Moderate risk

Higher risk than 45% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

open-design sits in the 99th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #18 of 5,141 in Design. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 48% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It has no curated competitive-alternative edges yet, so the comparable set below is functional tag-similarity — read it with the confidence flags. Signal momentum is roughly flat.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity

Company	Basis	Signal	P(dead)
html-anythingai-tools	tag-overlap	32.9	72%
Kilo Code v7 for VS Codeai-tools	tag-overlap	63.7	2%
Sketch to React Nativedev-tools	tag-overlap	18.6	9%
deepsecdev-tools	tag-overlap	65.3	22%
React Storybookdev-tools	tag-overlap	11.4	63%
pi-computer-useai-tools	tag-overlap	32.9	73%
Sketch2React Alpha 0.60dev-tools	tag-overlap	32.9	2%
gitbackupdev-tools	tag-overlap	32.9	41%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes

Business modelopen-source

Liveness tierquiet

Open sourceNo

Public APINo

Free tierNo

Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

2 disclosed funding rounds on record. See the full cap table on the product profile →