Ingress

Entertainment — Real world mobile game from Google [Android, iOS, iPad]

Entertainmentfreemiumest. 2014

● Stable

Category standing real

2th pctl · Entertainment

15.7

Signal score

0–100 composite · real

#4,369

Category rank

of 11,555 · real

1th

Universe percentile

vs 79,105 modeled · real

Mortality P(dead)

model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 6.1 → 18.2 across 37 readings (+12.1). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products

Signal (universe) real

Signal (category) real

Profile maturity real

Tag breadth real

Network position sparse

Press footprint sparse

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate

P(inactive)

Low risk

Higher risk than 2% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

Ingress sits in the 1th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #4,369 of 11,555 in Entertainment. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 1% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 2 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is roughly flat.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity

Company	Basis	Signal	P(dead)
Muslim Prayer Timeshealth	tag-overlap	30.0	54%
MapQuest 5.0travel	tag-overlap	18.6	46%
Maps.metravel	tag-overlap	18.6	0%
MIFON 9-in-1 Security Suitesecurity	tag-overlap	25.7	25%
Instapaper 6entertainment	similar	18.6	49%
Komoottravel	tag-overlap	15.7	0%
Qibla direction with Salah Timingshealth	tag-overlap	15.7	78%
Nova Launcherproductivity	tag-overlap	15.7	3%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes

Business modelfreemium

Liveness tierquiet

Open sourceNo

Public APINo

Free tierNo

Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

1 disclosed funding round on record. See the full cap table on the product profile →