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VC Intelligence Report

Merch by Amazon

Ecommerce — Create, sell, and promote custom branded t-shirts — Merch by Amazon is a new way to make some ex…
Ecommercemarketplaceest. 2015
● Stable
Category standing real
56th pctl · Ecommerce
25.7
Signal score
0–100 composite · real
#2,018
Category rank
of 5,171 · real
63th
Universe percentile
vs 79,105 modeled · real
2%
Mortality P(dead)
model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 11.1 → 18.5 across 37 readings (+7.4). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products
Signal (universe) real
63
Signal (category) real
56
Profile maturity real
63
Tag breadth real
86
Network position sparse
94
Press footprint sparse
0

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate
2%
P(inactive)
Low risk
Higher risk than 4% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

  • LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
  • Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
  • Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
  • Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
  • Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

Merch by Amazon sits in the 63th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #2,018 of 5,171 in Ecommerce. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 2% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 1 linked rival, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is roughly flat.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity
CompanyBasisSignalP(dead)
Goods of Recordecommercesimilar15.794%
Solidariumecommercesimilar15.783%
Tumpinecommercesimilar15.722%
KnownOriginecommercesimilar32.95%
Tiseecommercesimilar15.794%
WishTenderecommercesimilar32.916%
Crowd Monerofinancetag-overlap15.758%
NFT Marketplace Servicesecommercesimilar30.028%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes
Business modelmarketplace
Liveness tierfading
Open sourceNo
Public APINo
Free tierNo
Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

2 disclosed funding rounds on record. See the full cap table on the product profile →