Nimbus Note
Signal trajectory
realSignal 20.4 → 25.4 across 174 readings (+5.1). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.
Cross-sectional profile
percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled productsPercentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.
Mortality outlook
model estimateThis is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.
- LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
- Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
- Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
- Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
- Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model
n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.
Analyst read
generated from the metrics above · no external narrativeNimbus Note sits in the 99th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #106 of 10,124 in Productivity. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 35% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 2 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is roughly flat.
Comparable set
curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity| Company | Basis | Signal | P(dead) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evernoteproductivity | curated | 18.6 | 3% |
| Notionproductivity | curated | 25.7 | 4% |
| Olvycommunication | tag-overlap | 32.9 | 4% |
| Splashmarketing | tag-overlap | 15.7 | 28% |
| thob (The House of Bespoke)design | tag-overlap | 32.9 | 11% |
| Publicate 2.0communication | tag-overlap | 18.6 | 24% |
| Mozello Website Builderecommerce | tag-overlap | 18.6 | 38% |
| Digidocsproductivity | similar | 15.7 | 95% |
Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.
Structure
observed attributesFunding & team
real2 disclosed funding rounds on record. See the full cap table on the product profile →