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VC Intelligence Report

Open VPN

Security — A free, open source VPN client built on the OpenVPN project, designed for Android users seeking …
Security
● Stable
Category standing real
82th pctl · Security
31.0
Signal score
0–100 composite · real
#172
Category rank
of 931 · real
87th
Universe percentile
vs 79,105 modeled · real
1%
Mortality P(dead)
model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 15.4 → 21.6 across 171 readings (+6.2). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products
Signal (universe) real
87
Signal (category) real
82
Profile maturity real
67
Tag breadth real
77
Network position sparse
97
Press footprint sparse
100

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate
1%
P(inactive)
Low risk
Higher risk than 2% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

  • LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
  • Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
  • Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
  • Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
  • Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

Open VPN sits in the 87th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #172 of 931 in Security. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 1% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 2 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is roughly flat.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity
CompanyBasisSignalP(dead)
NordVPNsecuritycurated32.94%
ExpressVPNsecuritycurated32.90%
εxodussecuritysimilar30.02%
Fossdroiddev-toolstag-overlap15.725%
ZCash ($ZEC) – A blockchain for Privacy with Zooko Wilcoxfinancetag-overlap15.730%
Mailvelopesecuritysimilar15.70%
F-Droidothertag-overlap22.90%
MicroGdev-toolstag-overlap30.08%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes
Business modelunknown
Liveness tieractive
Open sourceNo
Public APINo
Free tierNo
Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

2 disclosed funding rounds on record. See the full cap table on the product profile →