Product Hunt 2015 Year in Review
Signal trajectory
realSignal 6.1 → 12.7 across 38 readings (+6.7). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.
Cross-sectional profile
percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled productsPercentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.
Mortality outlook
verified labelThis product carries a verified outcome label (“surviving”) — it is one of 600 hand-labeled cases the model is trained and tested on.
- LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
- Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
- Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
- Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
- Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model
n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.
Analyst read
generated from the metrics above · no external narrativeProduct Hunt 2015 Year in Review sits in the 1th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #748 of 1,311 in Analytics. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 4% — a verified outcome label. It has no curated competitive-alternative edges yet, so the comparable set below is functional tag-similarity — read it with the confidence flags. Signal momentum is roughly flat.
Comparable set
curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity| Company | Basis | Signal | P(dead) |
|---|---|---|---|
| How to angel invest in Indiafinance | tag-overlap | 15.7 | 86% |
| Startups Crushing It!communication | tag-overlap | 30.0 | 3% |
| Startup Fucking Adviceother | tag-overlap | 15.7 | 15% |
| HiredWomanproductivity | tag-overlap | 30.0 | 89% |
| How Much to Makefinance | tag-overlap | 30.0 | 11% |
| Stockflare: Our favorite five … from Warren Buffettfinance | tag-overlap | 15.7 | 66% |
| Randompreneurproductivity | tag-overlap | 15.7 | 92% |
| Newon.topproductivity | tag-overlap | 30.0 | 58% |
Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.
Structure
observed attributesFunding & team
real3 disclosed funding rounds on record. See the full cap table on the product profile →