Stack Overflow

Communication — Stack Overflow is a collaborative question and answer community where programmers share knowledg…

Communicationfreemiumest. 2016

▲ Rising

Category standing real

66th pctl · Communication

23.8

Signal score

0–100 composite · real

#1,114

Category rank

of 3,277 · real

63th

Universe percentile

vs 79,105 modeled · real

Mortality P(dead)

model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 11.1 → 19.0 across 38 readings (+7.9). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products

Signal (universe) real

Signal (category) real

Profile maturity real

Tag breadth real

Network position sparse

Press footprint sparse

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate

P(inactive)

Low risk

Higher risk than 1% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

Stack Overflow sits in the 63th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #1,114 of 3,277 in Communication. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 0% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 4 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is positive (WoW +21.0).

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity

Company	Basis	Signal	P(dead)
Deveodev-tools	tag-overlap	15.7	63%
Snippet Repodev-tools	tag-overlap	25.7	33%
Atomic Docsdev-tools	tag-overlap	22.9	4%
CodeMyUIdev-tools	tag-overlap	25.7	32%
Internal Notedev-tools	tag-overlap	30.0	11%
Ideas for devcommunication	similar	32.9	6%
Programmarcommunication	similar	15.7	29%
Doc42dev-tools	tag-overlap	15.7	76%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes

Business modelfreemium

Liveness tieractive

Open sourceNo

Public APINo

Free tierNo

Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

3 disclosed funding rounds on record, 2 founders resolved. See the full cap table on the product profile →