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VC Intelligence Report

Figma

Design — The collaborative interface design tool [Windows, Mac, Design Tools]
Designsaasest. 2017
▾ Fading
Category standing real
67th pctl · Design
27.5
Signal score
0–100 composite · real
#1,698
Category rank
of 5,141 · real
67th
Universe percentile
vs 79,105 modeled · real
5%
Mortality P(dead)
model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 7.5 → 16.9 across 29 readings (+9.4). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products
Signal (universe) real
67
Signal (category) real
67
Profile maturity real
46
Tag breadth real
100
Network position sparse
100
Press footprint sparse
100

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate
5%
P(inactive)
Low risk
Higher risk than 11% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

  • LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
  • Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
  • Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
  • Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
  • Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

Figma sits in the 67th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #1,698 of 5,141 in Design. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 5% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 49 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is negative (WoW -6.0).

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity
CompanyBasisSignalP(dead)
InVisionAppdesignsimilar11.499%
Sketchdesignsimilar22.910%
Balsamiqdesignsimilar18.612%
Felt Reaches 1.0, Now Ready for Teamsdesignsimilar32.912%
Slickplandesignsimilar25.739%
Creately 3.0designsimilar19.686%
Bluescapeproductivitytag-overlap15.777%
Figma 1.0designsimilar25.729%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes
Business modelsaas
Liveness tieractive
Open sourceNo
Public APINo
Free tierNo
Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

6 disclosed funding rounds on record, 3 founders resolved. See the full cap table on the product profile →