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VC Intelligence Report

GitHub Desktop

Developer Tools — The New Native [Tech]
Developer Toolsopen-sourceest. 2017
● Stable
Category standing real
46th pctl · Developer Tools
21.4
Signal score
0–100 composite · real
#4,172
Category rank
of 7,723 · real
52th
Universe percentile
vs 79,105 modeled · real
0%
Mortality P(dead)
model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 8.9 → 19.5 across 38 readings (+10.6). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products
Signal (universe) real
52
Signal (category) real
46
Profile maturity real
52
Tag breadth real
86
Network position sparse
97
Press footprint sparse
0

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate
0%
P(inactive)
Low risk
Higher risk than 0% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

  • LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
  • Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
  • Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
  • Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
  • Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

GitHub Desktop sits in the 52th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #4,172 of 7,723 in Developer Tools. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 0% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 2 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is roughly flat.

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity
CompanyBasisSignalP(dead)
Teletype for Atomdev-toolssimilar18.680%
Bl.ocksdev-toolssimilar22.918%
Android Studio 2.0 Previewdev-toolssimilar21.437%
Android Studio 1.0dev-toolssimilar18.692%
Android Studio 2.0dev-toolssimilar21.473%
Atom Beautifydev-toolssimilar15.732%
Xcodedev-toolssimilar18.60%
GitHub Standardsdev-toolssimilar15.719%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes
Business modelopen-source
Liveness tierquiet
Open sourceNo
Public APINo
Free tierNo
Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

4 disclosed funding rounds on record, 6 founders resolved. See the full cap table on the product profile →