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VC Intelligence Report

GitLab

Developer Tools — Open source alternative to GitHub — GitLab is an open-sourced code hosting platform for all of y…
Developer Toolsopen-coreest. 2015
▲ Rising
Category standing real
46th pctl · Developer Tools
21.4
Signal score
0–100 composite · real
#4,172
Category rank
of 7,723 · real
52th
Universe percentile
vs 79,105 modeled · real
1%
Mortality P(dead)
model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 11.1 → 18.4 across 37 readings (+7.4). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products
Signal (universe) real
52
Signal (category) real
46
Profile maturity real
63
Tag breadth real
100
Network position sparse
100
Press footprint sparse
99

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate
1%
P(inactive)
Low risk
Higher risk than 2% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

  • LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
  • Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
  • Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
  • Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
  • Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

GitLab sits in the 52th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #4,172 of 7,723 in Developer Tools. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 1% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 6 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is positive (WoW +17.3).

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity
CompanyBasisSignalP(dead)
Gitlab 9dev-toolssimilar18.625%
Travis CIdev-toolssimilar18.61%
GitHubdev-toolssimilar18.68%
Stoplight.iodev-toolssimilar18.61%
Codeshipdev-toolssimilar25.766%
Codacydev-toolssimilar18.630%
CircleCIdev-toolssimilar25.71%
MongoDB Atlasdev-toolssimilar18.621%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes
Business modelopen-core
Liveness tieractive
Open sourceNo
Public APINo
Free tierNo
Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

2 disclosed funding rounds on record, 1 founder resolved. See the full cap table on the product profile →