GitHub

Developer Tools — Build software better, together

Developer Toolssaasest. 2014

▾ Fading

Category standing real

36th pctl · Developer Tools

18.6

Signal score

0–100 composite · real

#4,190

Category rank

of 7,723 · real

46th

Universe percentile

vs 79,105 modeled · real

Mortality P(dead)

model est. · model est.

Signal trajectory

real

Signal 7.5 → 18.1 across 36 readings (+10.6). Composite of press, GitHub velocity, community heat, liveness and funding.

Cross-sectional profile

percentile rank vs 79,105 modeled products

Signal (universe) real

Signal (category) real

Profile maturity real

Tag breadth real

100

Network position sparse

100

Press footprint sparse

100

Percentiles computed over the modeled cohort (embedding + signal + tags). Sparse dimensions — network and press — reflect that most products have zero, so a single edge or mention lifts the rank; read those with the coverage flag.

Mortality outlook

model estimate

P(inactive)

Low risk

Higher risk than 16% of the universe.

This is a model estimate, not a verdict. 78,505 of the 79,105 modeled products are unlabeled and scored by the model only.

LightGBM · binary mortality (dead vs surviving)
Held-out AUC 0.71 · CV AUC 0.79 ± 0.05 · Brier 0.21
Trained on 600 verified labels (150 dead / 450 surviving)
Leakage-guarded: excludes status, discontinued_year, profile_maturity
Top drivers: tag breadth, signal, vintage, liveness, business model

n=600 is thin → 95% CI on AUC ≈ ±0.10. Treat as a directional signal, not a calibrated probability.

Analyst read

generated from the metrics above · no external narrative

GitHub sits in the 46th percentile of Launch Sentinel's 79,105-product universe by signal, ranked #4,190 of 7,723 in Developer Tools. The mortality model puts its probability of going inactive at 8% — a model estimate with a wide confidence band. It sits on the competitive-alternatives graph with 5 linked rivals, so the comparable set below leans on curated edges. Signal momentum is negative (WoW -19.2).

Comparable set

curated alternatives → functional tag-similarity

Company	Basis	Signal	P(dead)
MongoDB Atlasdev-tools	similar	18.6	21%
GitLabdev-tools	similar	21.4	1%
PagerDutydev-tools	similar	18.6	1%
Gitlab 9dev-tools	similar	18.6	25%
Bitrise 2.0dev-tools	similar	18.6	0%
CircleCIdev-tools	similar	25.7	1%
Codaproductivity	tag-overlap	18.6	1%
dmarciansecurity	tag-overlap	15.7	42%

Confidence reflects source and category coherence: curated = an editorially linked alternative; similar = strong functional tag-overlap in the same category; tag-overlap = shared tags only and may be noisy. Signal & P(dead) are real / model.

Structure

observed attributes

Business modelsaas

Liveness tieractive

Open sourceNo

Public APINo

Free tierNo

Enterprise tierNo

Funding & team

real

4 disclosed funding rounds on record, 9 founders resolved. See the full cap table on the product profile →